- In March 2025 the national ETS first expanded beyond power: steel, cement and aluminium smelting were added, lifting covered CO2 to over 60% of national emissions and adding about 1,500 entities and ~3 billion tonnes of new coverage.
2025年3月，全国碳市场首次扩围至电力之外：纳入钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼，覆盖二氧化碳占全国总量超60%，新增约1500家企业与约30亿吨新增覆盖。- The 2024, 2025 and 2026 compliance years are the “start-up phase”: 2024 allocations equalled verified emissions (no deficit), and 2025–2026 are balanced overall with capped surplus/deficit rates — no contractionary shock to foreign-invested plants.
2024、2025、2026履约年度为”启动实施阶段”：2024年配额等于经核查排放（无缺口），2025–2026整体盈亏平衡、盈缺率受限——对外资工厂无收缩性冲击。- Only direct process emissions are covered (fuel combustion + industrial-process reactions); indirectly purchased electricity/heat is excluded, protecting electricity-intensive but low-direct-emission operations.
仅覆盖直接过程排放（化石燃料燃烧+工业过程反应）；外购电力/热力导致的间接排放不纳入，保护高电耗但直接排放低的运营。- Allocation is free and intensity-based; from 2027 the scheme deepens, with sector totals and progressively tighter caps, and paid allocation is to be introduced over time.
配额为免费且基于强度；2027年起深化，逐步设行业总量并适度收紧，并适时引入有偿分配。- Foreign-invested manufacturers in steel/cement/aluminium must register, file monthly key-parameter electronic evidence, report and verify annually, and complete first clearance — with data-quality obligations enforced via blockchain/big-data oversight.
钢铁/水泥/铝冶炼的外资制造企业须登记、按月报送关键参数信息化存证、年度报告与核查，并完成首次清缴——数据质量义务由区块链/大数据监管执行。- Downstream effects reach auto and other exporters: green certificates, CBAM exposure and supply-chain decarbonisation requests flow through to suppliers, including foreign firms.
下游效应触及汽车等出口商：绿证、CBAM敞口与供应链脱碳要求传导至包括外资在内的供应商。- Next sectors in preparation are chemical, petrochemical, civil aviation and paper; by 2027 the ETS is to basically cover major industrial emitting sectors.
后续准备行业为化工、石化、民航、造纸；到2027年碳市场基本覆盖工业主要排放行业。
National carbon market expansion — impact on foreign-invested enterprises | 全国碳市场扩容（钢铁/建材/有色）对外资企业影响
Overview
China’s national Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), run under the ecology/environment authority (MEE), began with the power sector in 2021. In March 2025 it achieved its first expansion: steel, cement and aluminium smelting were brought into the market. For foreign-invested manufacturers in these sectors — and for any foreign firm whose Chinese supply chain touches them — the ETS is now a direct compliance cost and a strategic signal.
This article explains the 2025/2026 expansion, the allocation and compliance mechanics, the foreign-enterprise obligations, and how to respond. It is informational; confirm current detail with qualified PRC advisers.
The 2025 expansion
On 26 March 2025 the MEE released the *Work Plan for Covering Steel, Cement and Aluminium Smelting in the National ETS*. Approved by the State Council, the move added three high-emitting sectors. Coverage now exceeds 60% of national CO2 emissions; about 1,500 new key emitters are added, with roughly 3 billion tonnes of new covered emissions. The covered gases expand to CO2, CF4 and C2F6.
The expansion follows a “implement while refining” two-phase approach: 2024–2026 is the start-up phase (launch and bedding-in), and from 2027 is the deepening phase. A November 2025 allocation plan (《2024、2025年度…配额总量和分配方案》) set the rules for the first two years.
Allocation and the no-shock design
Crucially for business planning, the first years are deliberately non-punitive:
- 2024. Allocations to steel, cement and aluminium enterprises equalled verified actual emissions — every enterprise had zero deficit and paid no compliance cost.
- 2025–2026. Each sector is overall balanced; a performance-coefficient band caps every enterprise’s surplus/deficit rate within a small range, so there is no contractionary effect on sector development.
- Intensity-based, free allocation. Allocation tracks actual output and is benchmarked by industry; lower-intensity firms earn higher surplus rates, creating an incentive to abate. Only direct emissions (fuel combustion, industrial-process reactions) are covered; indirectly purchased electricity/heat is excluded.
- “Grasp the large, release the small.” Only the most emissions-concentrated producers are included — e.g., BF-BOF long-process steel, clinker lines, aluminium electrolysis — capturing 98%+ of each sector’s full-process emissions, while smaller segments (independent EAF short-process, steel rolling) are not yet included.
From 2027 the scheme deepens: explicit sector totals, progressively tighter caps, and — per the August 2025 opinion on building a stronger national carbon market — a gradual shift to paid allocation alongside free.
Foreign-enterprise obligations
A foreign-invested enterprise in steel, cement or aluminium that meets the threshold is a “key emitting entity” and must:
- Register on the national ETS management platform and be included in the provincial key-emitter list.
- File monthly electronic evidence of key carbon-accounting parameters via the management platform; provincial ecology/environment authorities technically review the data.
- Report and verify annually greenhouse-gas emissions; the 2025 allocation is issued in H1 2026 (pre-allocation) with true-up by year-end.
- Complete first clearance — the 2024 allowances are cleared within the year of the plan’s release.
- Meet data-quality duties under a strengthened MRV system, with blockchain/big-data/”three-tier review”/flight inspections enforcing accuracy and punishing fabrication.
Foreign ownership does not change these duties; a China legal entity carries them. The practical risk is not the cost today (near-zero in 2024, balanced in 2025–2026) but the trajectory: tightening caps and paid allocation from 2027 onward mean early abatement investment protects against future liability.
Downstream and cross-sector effects
The ETS radiates beyond the three sectors:
- Auto and other exporters. Steel, aluminium and cement are upstream inputs; their carbon costs and green-premium requests flow to suppliers. Foreign auto and machinery firms with China plants face both their own ETS exposure (if in covered segments) and supply-chain decarbonisation requests from EU/brand customers.
- Green certificates and green power. Covered entities and their customers increasingly use 绿证 to evidence renewable consumption; the 2026 green-certificate lifecycle rules broaden availability.
- CBAM interaction. The EU’s CBAM indirectly raises carbon cost on steel/aluminium enclosures and inputs; Chinese producers’ ETS compliance and certificates become part of export cost competitiveness.
- Next sectors. MEE has started preparatory work on chemical, petrochemical, civil aviation and paper, targeting basic coverage of major industrial emitting sectors by 2027.
Common pitfalls
- Assuming the ETS is someone else’s problem. If you operate a covered plant in China, you are the key emitter regardless of foreign ownership.
- Expecting a 2024–2026 cost shock. The design deliberately avoids contraction; the real cost arrives from 2027 with tighter caps and paid allocation.
- Ignoring monthly evidence filing. Data quality is enforced by tech-enabled oversight; gaps trigger penalties.
- Confusing direct and indirect emissions. Only direct process emissions are covered now; purchased power is excluded — plan abatement on the right boundary.
- Treating ETS in isolation. Green certificates, CBAM and supply-chain requests are linked; manage them together.
What to do next
- Confirm whether your China entity is a covered key emitter in steel/cement/aluminium; register on the national ETS platform.
- Stand up a data-quality system: monthly key-parameter electronic evidence, annual reporting, and verification readiness.
- Model the 2027+ trajectory — tightening caps and paid allocation — into capex for abatement now.
- Use green certificates and green-power procurement to manage renewable-consumption and export-customer requests.
- If exporting to the EU, integrate ETS compliance and CBAM exposure into product cost.
- Track MEE’s next-sector preparations (chemical, petrochemical, aviation, paper) for future exposure.
Sources
- 生态环境部 — 《2024、2025年度全国碳排放权交易市场钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业配额总量和分配方案》答记者问（2025-11）：https://www.mee.gov.cn/ywdt/zbft/202511/t20251119_1134197.shtml
- 国务院 — 全国碳市场首次扩围（钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼）新闻发布（2025-03）：https://www.gov.cn/lianbo/bumen/202503/content_7015718.htm
- 生态环境部（MEE）门户网站 — 全国碳排放权交易市场管理：https://www.mee.gov.cn
- 光明日报 — 首次扩围报道（2025-03-27）：https://news.gmw.cn/2025-03/27/content_37929458.htm
Related reading
- 风光发电外资项目核准与并网政策（146-wind-solar-2026）
- 新型储能外资参与路径（149-storage-2026）
- 绿氢/氢能产业外资投资机会与示范区（147-green-hydrogen-2026）
全国碳市场扩容（钢铁/建材/有色）对外资企业影响
概述
中国全国碳排放权交易体系（ETS）由生态环境主管部门（MEE）管理，2021年以电力行业起步。2025年3月实现首次扩围：纳入钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼。对身处这些行业的外资制造企业——以及任何中国供应链触及它们的外国公司——ETS如今是直接的合规成本与战略信号。
本文解释2025/2026扩围、配额与履约机制、外资企业义务与应对。本文仅为信息参考，具体细节请以合格中国顾问确认。
2025年扩围
2025年3月26日，生态环境部发布《全国碳排放权交易市场覆盖钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业工作方案》。经国务院办公厅，纳入三个高排放行业。覆盖二氧化碳占全国总量超60%；新增约1500家重点排放单位，新增覆盖排放约30亿吨。覆盖气体扩展至CO2、CF4与C2F6。
扩围按”边实施、边完善”两阶段：2024–2026为启动实施阶段，2027年起为深化完善阶段。2025年11月的《2024、2025年度…配额总量和分配方案》设定了前两年规则。
配额与无冲击设计
对经营规划至关重要的是，最初几年刻意非惩罚性：
- 2024年。 钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼企业配额等于经核查实际排放——每家企业无缺口、无需支付履约成本。
- 2025–2026年。 各行业整体盈亏平衡；以绩效系数带将每家企业盈缺率控制在较小范围内，不对行业发展产生收缩性效应。
- 基于强度、免费分配。 配额与实际产出挂钩并按行业基准；强度越低企业盈余率越高，形成减排激励。仅覆盖直接排放（化石燃料燃烧、工业过程反应）；外购电力/热力导致的间接排放不纳入。
- “抓大放小”。 仅纳入排放最集中的生产者——如高炉-转炉长流程钢铁、熟料线、铝电解——覆盖各行业全流程排放98%以上，而较小环节（独立电炉短流程、钢压延）暂不纳入。
2027年起深化：明确行业总量、逐步适度收紧，并依2025年8月《关于推进绿色低碳转型 加强全国碳市场建设的意见》逐步引入有偿分配（与免费并行）。
外资企业义务
钢铁、水泥或铝冶炼中达到门槛的外商投资企业，属”重点排放单位”，须：
- 登记 于全国碳市场管理平台，并纳入省级重点排放单位名录。
- 按月报送 关键核算参数的信息化存证；省级生态环境主管部门技术审核。
- 年度报告与核查 温室气体排放；2025年配额于2026年上半年预分配、年底多退少补核定清缴。
- 完成首次清缴 —— 2024年配额在方案发布当年内清缴。
- 履行数据质量义务 —— 在强化的MRV体系下，以区块链/大数据/”三级联审”/飞行检查 enforcement，造假受罚。
外资所有权不改变这些义务；由中国法律实体承担。现实风险不是当下的成本（2024近零、2025–2026平衡），而是趋势：2027年起收紧的配额与有偿分配意味着提早的减排投资可防范未来负债。
下游与跨行业效应
ETS辐射超出三个行业：
- 汽车等出口商。 钢铁、铝、水泥是上游投入；其碳成本与绿色溢价请求传导至供应商。在中国设厂的外资汽车与机械企业，既面临自身（若处覆盖环节）ETS敞口，也面临来自欧/品牌客户的供应链脱碳要求。
- 绿证与绿电。 覆盖实体及其客户日益用绿证证明可再生消费；2026年绿证全生命周期规则扩大可得性。
- 与CBAM互动。 欧盟CBAM通过钢铝外壳与投入间接抬高碳成本；中国生产者的ETS合规与绿证成为出口成本竞争力的一部分。
- 后续行业。 生态环境部已启动化工、石化、民航、造纸前期准备，目标2027年基本覆盖工业主要排放行业。
常见误读
- 以为ETS与己无关。 若在中国运营覆盖行业工厂，无论外资与否你就是重点排放单位。
- 预期2024–2026成本冲击。 设计刻意避免收缩；真实成本自2027年随收紧与有偿分配而来。
- 忽视按月存证。 数据质量由技术赋能监管执行；缺口触发处罚。
- 混淆直接与间接排放。 当前仅覆盖直接过程排放；外购电力不纳入——在正确边界上规划减排。
- 孤立看待ETS。 绿证、CBAM与供应链请求相互关联；应统一管理。
下一步建议
- 确认中国实体是否属钢铁/水泥/铝的覆盖重点排放单位；在全国碳市场平台登记。
- 建立数据质量体系：按月关键参数信息化存证、年度报告与核查准备。
- 将2027+趋势——收紧配额与有偿分配——建模进当前减排资本开支。
- 用绿证与绿电采购管理可再生消费与出口客户请求。
- 若出口欧盟，将ETS合规与CBAM敞口纳入产品成本。
- 跟踪生态环境部后续行业准备（化工、石化、民航、造纸）以预判未来敞口。
来源
- 生态环境部 — 《2024、2025年度全国碳排放权交易市场钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业配额总量和分配方案》答记者问（2025-11）：https://www.mee.gov.cn/ywdt/zbft/202511/t20251119_1134197.shtml
- 国务院 — 全国碳市场首次扩围（钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼）新闻发布（2025-03）：https://www.gov.cn/lianbo/bumen/202503/content_7015718.htm
- 生态环境部（MEE）门户网站 — 全国碳排放权交易市场管理：https://www.mee.gov.cn
- 光明日报 — 首次扩围报道（2025-03-27）：https://news.gmw.cn/2025-03/27/content_37929458.htm
相关阅读
- 风光发电外资项目核准与并网政策（146-wind-solar-2026）
- 新型储能外资参与路径（149-storage-2026）
- 绿氢/氢能产业外资投资机会与示范区（147-green-hydrogen-2026）